He will have managed 4 years with the Cubs, just like his predecessor, Dusty Baker.
"I'm not a dragon!" (photo by Paul Connors)
And for the Cubs, that actually is a long time. In my life of Cubs fandom (of which really started in 1982 when I became aware of the Cubs), only one manager has managed the Cubs for a longer stint, and that was perhaps, the worst manager during my fandom, Jim Riggleman. Riggleman managed the Cubs for 4 miserable, and 1 not miserable year from 1995 to 1999.
So Cub managers tend to not stick around very long, and the fans usually were ok with that. Only one manager was fired since 1982 that I felt still had the fans' support at the point he was fire and that was Jim LaFebvre in 1993.
For me, it was about a month into the 2004 season when I officially decided that I wanted Dusty to go. And I have pretty much felt that way about almost every other Cubs manager at the point that they were fired (except for LaFebvre and Don Baylor).
I have yet to feel the same about Lou after 3 full seasons.
I know a number of people started having doubts about Lou last season, but for me, he seemed like the same manager as we had seen the previous two years. I have been impressed with what Lou has brought to this club. He understands the team, he has a good relationship with his GM, and he has a good grasp on baseball. If anything, Lou loses focus occasionally, but that is usually due to disgust in what he is seeing on the field.
The thing is, Lou will will turn 67 years old this year. Only one manager that I can think of is older, and that is Joe Torre, who is retiring after this season.
Is Lou going to retire after this season too?
I'm fairly sure Lou doesn't know at this point. And so we will have to wait. The Ricketts family and Jim Hendry all like Lou a lot, and I believe it is assumed that they will want Lou back no matter what happens this season.
Lou's decision, though, it will likely be determined by what happens this season.
We really have no idea what to expect from this team this year...while there are almost no question marks about who will be on the roster, there are a ton of question marks about the players who are actually on the roster. So trying to predict what will happen with this team is going to be hard to do.
As I said, Lou's decision will be determined by what the team does, but what are the situations that would make Lou come back? That's hard to say. I once thought I had a knack for figuring that out...but Brett Favre has made me question everything when it comes to retirement. But ignoring that, I see two scenarios where Lou would retire, and one where he would stay (and about a million scenarios that I have no idea about).
Lou likely would retire after this season if the team just straight out sucks. If the Cubs finish in the bottom half of the division, which would be hugely disappointing, Lou would likely be fed up with this crap and prefer to do something else.
Lou likely would retire, also, if the team wins the NL pennant or the World Series. He would have taken a Cubs team somewhere that they haven't been for a long, long time, and he would instantly become a legend in Chicago.
What retirement will be like.
The only situation that I can think of that would guarantee that he would not retire is if the Cubs were to get into the playoffs and win in their division series. Just missing getting to the World Series would be enough for him to come back and try again.
That leaves a lot in between.
If Lou stays, I would guess he would not sign anything more than a one year contract. This is fine if the Cubs are actually planning for Ryne Sandberg to replace Piniella. But if Sandberg isn't the choice, I'd hate for the Cubs to be held hijacked by a manager that isn't certain about his future.
And if Piniella goes, it could signal a rebuilding process for the Cubs as they move on with a new manager, and perhaps look to build a new nucleus of players.
But back to the point, will he stay or will he go?
I don't know, but I'd sure like it if he stayed a few more years.
