The Cubs have no idea what to do with Soriano

Last week, he might be batting cleanup.  Then yesterday we were told he might be batting lead off.

Who?  (as if you haven't read the title of this post)

Alfonso Soriano.

Shh...let's not bother talking about his defense today.

Yes, the middle of last week we were told by Dale Sveum that Soriano might be a fit to hit cleanup.  This isn't a completely rediculous idea, especially against left handed pitchers, who Soriano has actually continued to hit well against, posting a not too horrible .812 OPS last year and was even more impressed the year before.

But in today's Sun-Times, it was reported that Sveum is considering batting Soriano lead off at times during the season (which is where he batted him for the intrasquad game yesterday).  We've been there and done that.  No thanks.  Unless something miraculous has happened where Soriano's legs were replaced with ones that actually kinda worked, this idea is probably doomed to fail.

(more after the jump)

Burning down the roster with more Wood

David Kaplan today wrote one of the more conclusive articles today about the fact that, despite what a number of other members of the press have said, the Cubs are indeed going through a complete and total rebuilding process.

In 28 years of following this team, it's really the first time that I will have seen this done.  While it means the Cubs are likely going to be in the bottom half of the central division for the next couple years, come 2014, this team might finally be in a position to achieve sustained success.  It's not guaranteed, but I have faith that this is the right way to go.

So with that said, a slew of Cubs rumors have been coming down the line over the last few days, and a couple of transactions are in the process of happening.

The biggest move of the day, and the true beginning of the dismantling of the current roster, is a trade of Sean Marshall to the Reds for left handed starter, Travis Wood.  The Cubs are supposedly getting two prospects in the deal as well...and I believe that these prospects are more important to the trade than Travis Wood is. (Details on those prospects have not been released.)

Marshall is a free agent next year and was one of the best left handed middle relievers in baseball.  Dumping Marshall is extremely logical.  He'll be a free agent after this season.  His skills are going to useless for the Cubs this coming season as he'll be the best middle reliever coming into a majority of games where the Cubs are losing.

The Reds are making a significant stab at winning the division this year and appear to be going for broke as they sense blood in the water with the possibility of both the Brewers and Cardinals sinking significantly next season.  Cincinnati is looking at a pretty small window of opportunity right now with Joey Votto becoming a free agent in 2014.  After he leaves town, the Reds will need to rebuild their roster. 

So what do we get with another Wood on the team?  Well Travis Wood had a decent rookie season, and many of us remember the gem he threw against the Cubs in his MLB debut two years ago.  He faced the Cubs two other times that year, both times the Cubs handled him much better.

Overall, I really don't like Wood's stuff.  On the other hand, he is a lefty, is very young and is still a season away from reaching arbitration.

Take a look at this...

Games	IP	ERA	K	W	BB
39	208.2	4.18	162	11	66
45	229.0	4.83	144	13	94

That first line was Travis Wood's stats combined in 2010 and 2011 at ages 23 and 24.
The second line was Sean Marshall in his first two seasons at ages 23 and 24.

Wood has actually been a bit better than Marshall was.  Today Marshall is one of the best lefty relievers in baseball. So keep that in mind...who knows how Travis Wood will end up.

I initially didn't like the idea of this trade, but this is a trade that a team in full rebuilding mode should make.

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In other news, the Cubs supposedly have been talking with Paul Maholm and (God help us) Jeff Francis.  Both are left handed bottom of the rotation type of starters.  I get the feeling that with Travis Wood coming to the Cubs now, the interest in Maholm and Francis will probably decrease.

Also, the Cubs have re-signed Reed Johnson, again.  He had a decent season last year in his second stint with the Cubs (before getting his annual trip to the DL) and the fans seem to like him.  He'll be the 4th or 5th outfielder, and that's fine considering his injury history. 

With Reed signed, we still must watch what else the Cubs plan to do in the outfield.  We all know that Tom Ricketts would cut off his arm if it would help in moving Soriano.  I would also expect some rumors to start up about Marlon Byrd too.  If either of those players is moved, Brett Jackson will likely be roaming the outfield at Wrigley next season.

Phil Rogers is spreading imbecilic trade rumors again

Phil Rogers let out this good one yesterday...

Michael Young for Alfonso Soriano.

Young wants out of Texas and the Cubs want out of Soriano's contract.

Texas owes $16 million to Young for each of the next 3 seasons. The Cubs owe $18 million for each of the next 4 seasons.

The Rangers need a DH.

The Cubs need a second baseman.

Here are two reasons that this won't happen and could never happen.

First off...Michael Young probably can't play 2nd base anymore. He hasn't played there since the 2003 season at which point he moved to shortstop where he hasn't played in 2 years. He's a third baseman or a DH. Plain and simple. On top of that, Young will probably provide less to the Cubs than Soriano would. While he hasn't attempted many stolen bases over the last couple of seasons, Soriano, while slower is still a potential base-stealing threat. If Young were to put on a Cubs uniform, I can pretty much guarantee that he will, at most, have about 2 stolen base attempts this year. Soriano is, even with a down year last year, a better hitter than Young. Young appears to be a clutch hitter, and has set all sorts of franchise records down in Texas, but I find it extremely unlikely that can be of more value to the Cubs than Alfonso Soriano right now.

Second, and read this carefully, the Rangers traded Soriano away in 2006 partially because they didn't want to get bogged down into a big, expensive, long-term contract with him which would likely extend far past his useful playing days, especially after getting screwed over by A-Rod. For the Rangers to trade away Michael Young for a player they weren't willing pay 5 years ago to play into his mid to late 30's is idiotic.

Yes, Young wants out of Texas. He doesn't want to be a DH. But that isn't a reason for the Rangers to do something stupid.

That being said, I'm not totally against a deal like this for one reason: If the Cubs were to acquire Michael Young, they would be more able to trade him to another team later down the line than if they held on to Soriano and tried to trade him in the next couple years. But that's it...if there was even a remote chance of this happening.

Now, to Phil Rogers defense, he didn't really say that the two teams were actually talking, but the mere fact that he mentioned this trade combination will likely spread around the blogosphere and other media outlets fairly quickly and lead to unnecessary anticipation and speculation. (Remember the Carlos Zambrano to the Yankees rumors?)

We are going to be stuck with Soriano for probably 1 to 2 more years, after which the Cubs will be able to unload him while paying for a good chunk of his remaining contract.

But I will continue to say, Alfonso Soriano will not finish his contract in a Cubs uniform.

Hold on here people...Soriano is not going to be released.

Alfonso Soriano is not going to be released....at least not any time soon.

 Relax...he isn't going anywhere.

Everyone is getting all worked up today from a story on ESPN by Rob Neyer, where he said that there is a 50/50 chance that Soriano will be released by the Cubs.

Yes...I agree with that ...and I'd go so far as to say that there is close to a 100% chance that Soriano will not finish his 8 year contract in a Cubs uniform.

But, including this season, with $90 million and 5 years left on his contract, Alfonso Soriano is not going anywhere this year.  And he isn't going anywhere next year either.

I know it is painful, and we can wish all we want, but that is the truth. 

Neyer states all this in his story...but unfortunately, it's easy to post an incomplete headline that only says 1/2 the information.  Nothing Neyer says should be shocking to any Cubs fans with any bit of knowledge. 

As Neyer says in his story, there aren't a whole lot of really bad contracts left out there...meaning the Cubs are not likely to find a partner to swap bad contracts with like they did with Milton Bradley.  A huge number of the bad contracts have gone away now as teams have become considerably more cautious with long term deals.

It's easy to get worked up about all this with Soriano playing so poorly right now. The Cubs are not going to release him...and no team is going to trade for him with that much time left on the contract.  It doesn't matter how much we want to twist words from a national writer into something we hope would happen...reality is far from that.

And all the misleading titles to blogs and posts (of which I did here as well) isn't going to change anything or make us feel any better. 

Cub fans...we are stuck with this guy for quite a while yet.  We're going to have to deal with it.

Would Lou Piniella really consider benching Soriano?

As I noted in my blog on Monday, Soriano was booed louder than any other player on opening day at Wrigley during the pre-game introductions. On top of that, each time he made an out, he was booed loudly as well (he did have two hits that day as well).  Look, I don't condone this behavior.  Soriano has carried this team for times over the last 3 years...and, if fact, he was probably the single player that did the most to push the Cubs into a tie for first place at the end of July/early August last year.

Simply said, the Cubs need him to perform, and we as fans should be doing everything we can to push this guy to start producing.  Instead, right now, he is in the early stages of being run out of town.

This team is not going to be successful with Tyler Colvin playing left field.  We need Soriano to perform and must give him every possible opportunity to do that.

Ok...off my soap box.

I'm not going to look into the stats right now, but last season, this team was struggling for much of the first half of the season...and Soriano was very much in the middle of that as he was in a prolonged slump.  After the All-Star break, the Cubs may a strong push and actually tied the Cardinals for first place.  Soriano had started hitting during that short surge.  Then he started to struggle again and the team quickly dropped out of contention.

Soriano's defensive struggles are another topic...

With Soriano offensively starting the season in a slump, Lou Piniella has made it known that he expects him to shore up his defense to compensate.  That isn't happening.

Colvin and Nady are spending a majority of the time on the bench right now.  Nady, at the very least, should be an every day player.  Colvin is the current flavor of the month and appears to be solid in the outfield.

Could Lou actually be considering benching Soriano for either of these guys?  Offensively, Nady could give you more.  Defensively, Colvin could get you more.  But Soriano is the closest thing that this club has to a superstar.  I'll continue to say this, the Cubs are not going to the playoffs with Soriano on the bench.  The Cubs need Soriano to play, and they need him to play well, otherwise October is going to be a Cubless month.

We need Soriano to start hitting.  And we need to encourage his fragile ego and show him some love because without him, we're doomed.


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Heading off to Chicago again today...I'll do a recap when I get home.

Wells vs. Cubs' punching bag, Dave Bush.  The weather is supposed to be great...and I'll be sitting in the lower deck for the first time since the 2003 playoffs today.  Should be fun.  (And thank you to the dealer who gave the tickets for today's game to my friends and me!)

Soriano benched for tonight's game.

Tyler Colvin gets the start tonight in left field and will bat 6th as the Cubs conclude their opening series this season against the Braves.

Other notable changes in tonight's lineup:

Our lord and savior, Koyie Hill, will be batting 8th and catching. Jeff Baker also gets the start tonight at second and bats 7th.

With the exception of the two homers in game 1, one by Byrd and the other by Ramirez, the Cubs offensive has been quite flat. Hopefully this shuffling will spark a little something.

Randy Wells will face Tommy Hanson tonight. Both of these guys had outstanding rookie seasons last year. This should be a fun match-up. As much as we praised Wells last season, Hanson was better. Hanson finished 3rd in the Rookie of the Year voting. (Wells was 6th.)

Time for our first win!

Matt Holliday vs Alfonso Soriano. Which contract is a better deal?

Well, Matt Holliday signed a 7 year contract with the Cardinals today. The deal was worth $119 million.

This should line up well with Alfonso Soriano's contract, so let's compare the two contacts...shall we?

Let's look first look at the years:

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Soriano	$9 mil	$13 mil	$16 mil	$18 mil	$18 mil	$18 mil	$18 mil	$18 mil
Holliday	$17 mil	$17 mil	$17 mil	$17 mil	$17 mil	$17 mil	$17 mil	$17mil(opt)

The Holliday deal is not back weighted. Another thing to look at, the last year on the deal...the eighth year...is a team option.

Holliday will be 30 at the start of this contract. Soriano was 31 at the start of his. Holliday will 36 at the end. Soriano will be 38.

Let's look at some career statistics from the time each of these players was signed.

	ave	HR/season	RBI/season	OPS	SB	K	BB
Soriano	.280	26/36	70/95	.836	26/36	104/142	28/38
Holliday	.318	25/29	99/113	.933	13/16	101/116	54/62

(stats with 2 numbers..first number is average per season...the second is average per 162 games)

Many of the statistics are similar. Holliday was a better for-average hitter and had a much higher OPS. We also see that Holliday took a lot more walks than Soriano. Soriano stole more bases, but Holliday wasn't a slouch on the basepads either. Holliday tended to drive in more runs, but Soriano was a leadoff hitter much of that time.

Now let's keep in mind, many of those years for Holliday were spent in Colorado. In his one year outside of Colorado, last year split between Oakland and St. Louis, his numbers did not suffer over the course of the whole season. So it would seem that much of the Holliday statistics are legit. But closer examination shows that in his career, has hit much better at home (Coors Field) than on the road (ave: .351/.283 hr: 100/52 Ks: 281/325)...so last year could just have been a fluke. Remember, his number were actually not that great in Oakland last year before he was traded to the Cardinals in the middle of a pennant race in which he could beat up on the Cubs.

So, let's get back to the question, which of these deals is better?

Looking at the results, many people feel the Soriano deal has been a bust for the Cubs. They would hoping for a 30/30 guy and got a 25/10 guy. So he isn't a stolen base threat anymore and has been moved out of the leadoff spot. I fully expect to see him have a huge year in the 5 or 6 slot in 2010.

Holliday will be playing second fiddle to Albert Pujols who is arguably the best player in baseball. Holliday drives in 19% of his baserunners, which is rediculously good. With the walks given to Pujols, he will have plenty of opportunity to continue to drive in runs, and with a 19% rate, should have a huge number of RBI in 2010. Both players brought a lot to the table when they signed.

So, what do you think? Ignoring Soriano's time in Chicago, when these two players signed their contracts, which one seems like the better deal?