Good or bad? The wildcard play-in game

Today, Major League Baseball is expected to announce that they will be adding a play-in game as part of the playoff setup.  Notice I don’t say they’ve added 2 extra wildcard teams.  From my point of view, this is a play-in for the two teams with the best records that didn’t win a division in each league to determine which one actually gets to go to the playoffs. 

I’ve been saying since the plan came out that I thought this was a good thing for baseball, as it actually puts more of a premium on winning a division.

But, is this actually true?  Arguments from people against this plan say that this is more likely to cause division races to last longer and could have a negative impact on teams with better records as they are not able to “set their rotations” and rest some of their players before the playoffs start. 

It’s a completely valid argument.  Currently a wild card team that was only a game or two back of the division leader could rest a bit easier knowing that they are likely secure set in the playoffs instead of making a run at winning the division, where the only advantage would be the possibility of home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.  Now they have something to play for, and the division leaders have something to defend.

I admit that this is a potential problem with the system…but how big of a problem is it? 

With a single wild card team in each league over the last 10 years, a close division race between a wild card team and a division leader has happened a total of 5 times:  once in 2005, 2007 and 2010 and twice in 2006.  That 5 times out of 20 wild card races.   Let’s then add in what would have happened if a second wild card team existed during the last 10 years.  My calculations show that the 2^nd best non-division winner would have affected a total of 5 other division races during that time.  (I’m basing this basically off of the idea that a division wasn’t decided by the 3^rd to last day of the season.) 

So basically adding the wildcard play-in game would have possibly affected 10 out of 60 division races over the last 10 years.  But let’s look a little closer here.  Do the extra wildcard positions really affect division races more than if they wouldn’t have been there?  No!  The added teams would have done nothing more to the competition for those division titles.  The two teams, under the current system, are competing for a division title…winner take all…with the loser going home.  Under the new system, the loser still gets a shot at making the playoffs with the play-in game.  Nothing has changed! 

In the end, the only thing that will change is the dynamic for the #1 wildcard team in each league.  As I said before, 5 times in the last 10 years, the wildcard team was battling with a division winner up until the end of the season.  Five times out of 20 wild card races, or 5 times in 60 division races…take it any way you want, it happens about once every other year. 

Why is this a big deal? 

Well, for me, the reason I hated the wildcard round when it was installed in the mid 90’s what that it introduced a “wildcard” scenario into the playoffs where a team that played well all season could meet up with a team that “got hot” at the end of the season and won the wildcard…meeting in an unpredictable 5 game series.  We as fans, while entertained by underdogs beating favorites, should be striving to see the best team in baseball win the World Series every single year.  While this might mean the Yankees would have added a dozen more titles, it still stands that the winner of the World Series should be the best team in baseball, not the team that got the most breaks in October.

The argument against the added wildcard team is that it is possible for a team with the best record in their league to have to fight for their life at the end of the season with a possible wildcard team to ensure they win their division and not get stuck in some play-in game where anything can happen. 

How many times would this have happened in the last 10 years?  Twice.  First was in 2007 with the Yankees and Red Sox…and that was a race that was borderline on being included as the Yankees were 3 games out with 3 games to go in the season.  The second time was in 2010, again in the AL East, this time between the Rays and the Yankees. 

In 2010, neither the Rays nor the Yankees made it to the World Series…likely a fate that would be no different than it would have been if there was a play-in game.  In 2007, the Red Sox won the World Series.  This situation could very well have been affected by a play-in game, if the Red Sox and Yankees had to battle to the very end of the season just to get into the playoffs.  In 2006, the World Series champion Cardinals had to battle the Astros, who were not really in the wildcard race for the division…so nothing would have changed with a play-in game…the Cardinals would have gone into the playoffs under the same circumstances.  In 2005, the White Sox won the World Series…and also and added play-in team would have had no effect on their division race. 

In the end, only once in the last 10 years would the play-in game have likely had a significant negative impact on the team that eventually won the World Series. 

Ok...here is one last little thing I’d like to throw out there…what if there was no wildcard at all?  Division winners were the only teams to make it into the playoffs.  (Yes, I know this isn’t possible since there are 3 divisions in each league…it wouldn’t quite work out.)  But hypothetically, with no wildcard teams, that would mean that every division winner might have to battle down to the wire with another team to get into the playoffs.  The wildcard, as it currently exists, took away some of those division races.  The new setup re-installs that competition. 

I still stand by my belief that the play-in game will be a good thing, and it makes the wildcard much more palatable.  Teams that win their division will get a little rest while the two potential wildcard team’s will have to exhaust every resource they have to win a single game to get into the playoffs.

And I can live with the fact that play-in game might have a negative effect once in 10 years…because the other 9, it will probably help the better teams…the teams that should be winning the World Series.  

The ridiculous idea that the Cubs can make the playoffs this year.

The Cubs cannot make the playoffs...plain and simple.

Those of you who follow me on LOHO and on Twitter have probably seen me post similar arguments to those I will make here today.

The Cubs are currently 34-50 on the season.

They currently have 4 teams ahead of them in the division standings.

They currently have 11 teams ahead of them in the wild card standings.

In the very best case scenario for the Cubs, the Cubs could win the division with a minimum of 85 wins. I don't see anyway possible fewer than 85 wins will land any team the division title in the NL Central.

Ok, so let's just say the Cubs turn things around and actually do win 85 games this season. That would then require them to go 51-27 for the remaining 78 games this year. That is a winning percentage of .653. The Cubs would have to maintain a .653 winning percentage for the last 3 months of the season.

In the first half of the season, there were only two teams with winning percentages over .600...the Yankees and the Phillies. Neither of them was even close to .653. A team with a .653 winning percentage would be on pace, for an entire season, to win 106 games.

So, in order for the Cubs to even have a chance to win the division, they would need to play better baseball for 3 months than any team in all of baseball has been able to play in the first 3 months of this season.

Now, lets look at the likelihood that the four teams currently ahead of the Cubs will end up winning only 84 games in order to give the Cubs the division.

The Reds are currently in 4th place. They can't do better than go 42-36. That's possible.

The Pirates are currently in 3rd place. The can't do better than go 42-37. That also is very possible.

The Cardinals and Brewers are currently tied for first. Both of those team can't do better than go 39-39.

So basically we need to hope that not a single team in the division (except the Astros) plays better than .538 ball the rest of the season in order for the Cubs to have a shot. That's possible. No team in the Central did that for the first half of the season...but the fact the both the Brewers and Cardinals need to play at a pace of a single game over .500 to achieve 85 wins, it again makes it extremely unlikely that the Cubs will be able to catch all four of these teams.

So we have established that is it extremely unlikely that all other 4 teams in the division will all falter enough for the Cubs to be have a shot to win the division at a nearly impossible to achieve 85 wins.

What about the wild card?

In the wild card era, (not counting the strike shortened 1995 season) the lowest win total by a wild card team is 88 wins, which was achieved on two occasions by the 1996 Orioles and the 2006 Dodgers.

The Cubs would need a 54-24 record or a .692 winning percentage for the rest of the season. That would be 112 win pace for an entire season.

That would mean that the other 11 teams ahead of them would have to have no better than the following records for the Cubs to finish ahead of them with 88 wins:

Dodgers: 50-27
Marlins: 50-28
Padres: 49-28
Mets: 46-32
Rockies: 46-32
Nationals: 45-32
Reds: 45-32
Pirates: 45-33
D-Backs: 42-35
Cardinals/Brewers: 42-35
Braves: 38-39

Not a single one of these teams can have records better than what I've shown above in order for the Cubs to have a shot at winning the wild card with the worst record that any wild card team has ever managed to have.

Is this all impossible? No it's not. It is just extremely improbable.

Two teams in recent memory have defeated drastic odds to come back and make the playoffs (both as wild cards). Probably the best example was the 2005 Houston Astros and the other team was 2003 Marlins. These two teams had something in common. The Astros were, at one point, 15 games under .500 during their run to the pennant. The Astros, though, turned things around by the end of May and were at .500 by July 9th. The Marlins decided they needed a change in management. They dug up Jack McKeon's body and propped it on the bench in mid-May and then they started their great run. The command thread was that both of theses teams turned things around by the beginning of June...not after the All-Star Break.

The Cubs are sitting at the beginning of July and have yet to make a run at anything including a 3 game winning streak. They also seem to be unwilling to make a move of any sort to shake up the current doldrums that they are in.

It's over.

The Cubs are one of only three teams that really have no realistic or semi-realistic chance of making the playoffs. That, in theory, means they have potentially 27 teams that could be buyers from some of their players. The Cubs should take advantage of that. They should not wait until late July when probably the Dodgers, Orioles, A's, and Marlins could all be moved over to the list of sellers as well. The should start to sell now.

There is nothing to discuss. There is no need for organizational meetings. This team is not making the playoffs. This season is lost. No amount of spin from the GM or the owner can replace the fact that this team is not good. They might be better than their current record, but that doesn't matter anymore. Rebuild, rebuild, rebuild.

But are there any players on the Cubs that other teams might want? Well, that's a question for another day.