Yet another problem with a Carlos

What do you do about Carlos Marmol?

"I'm not very good."

He has struggled for almost a year now and it doesn't appear to be getting any better.

Do you trade him at all costs, eating most of the $15 million or so that he is still owed?

Do you make him a middle reliever?

Do you place him on the DL with some mysterious ailment?

Do you bury him somewhere in the outfield and claim you never knew him?

Of course today was brutal and it is easy to overreact.

Players in the bullpen typically aren't "blocking" minor leaguers from a spot to prove themselves on a big league squad.  As a result, trading Marmol at all costs makes little sense right now.  This isn't Marlon Byrd, Alfonso Soriano or even Geovany Soto...who were/are blocking some of the Cubs more promising prospects.  The Cubs have a lot of money invested in Marmol and it would behoove them to give him an opportunity to work out his problems so they can at least recover some of that investment in a trade for a prospect (or two).

At the same time, he should not work out these problems as the team's closer.

The Cubs don't have a pitcher who really could take over the role...but for a team that is this bad, the Cubs really don't have a need for a top of the line closer.  Between Wood, Dolis and Russell, the Cubs could probably make ends meet for the rest of the season.  Remember that if Marmol was pitching well, he'd be on the trading block and would, without a doubt, be gone by the trade deadline anyway, which would mean the Cubs would be in the same situation.

But what is wrong with Marmol?

I'm not an expert at examining PitchFX at this point...but I can tell you that his problems don't appear to be velocity related.  His velocity appears to be up over last season.  I could be movement related...there is some evidence that he has lost some horizontal movement on this pitches.  But it just simply looks like he can't throw strikes and hitters are not swinging at some of the pitches that they were in the past.  This results in what we saw today: 3 walks and no outs.

For now, the Cubs should be patient with Marmol.  Put him into a middle relief role and have him continue to work on his mechanics with Chris Bosio to get him back to some semblance of a decent pitcher.

Marmol isn't going to be a Cub for much longer regardless, but rushing to dump him isn't the right solution.

Marmol and cut fastballs

The revelation yesterday from Dale Sveum that Carlos Marmol was throwing a cut fastball last year has surprised people quite a bit over the last couple days.

Most people are coming out today and stating that they had no idea that Marmol was actually trying to throw a cut-fastball last year.  Why?  Well, because of Marmol's arm angle, a cut fast ball would look very much like a faster, flatter slider.

Do the facts support this?  Well, Fangraphs has Marmol's velocity on his slider, overall, to be a fraction bit lower than it was in 2010. In fact, Marmol's slider was the slowest it has been since the 2008 season.  At the same time, Marmol's pitches did flatten out and Fangraphs does show some support to that, but the number really aren't the far off his career averages.

Overall, I don't think we can say that his slider was being confused, at least by Fangraphs, with a cut fastball.  However, if we look at his fastball, he did lose significant velocity last year.  Marmol was down almost 2.5 mph on his fastball last year.  That's pretty substantial and is far below his career numbers.

Marmol may have had some problems with his elbow (which has been hinted at by some) or maybe he was throwing a cut fastball occasionally, which tends to be 2 to 5 mph slower than a straight fastball. If cut fastballs were mixed in, we should see a high range of velocity on his fastball last year.  Stats don't really show that.  Marmols overall velocity range on his fastball didn't really change, and the upper limit on his fastball velocity appears to be down about the same amount as his average...2.5 mph.

His fastball, unlike his slider, also showed a little more movement, but that might just be accounted for by the loss of velocity.

To see the charts...go to Fangraphs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=2790&position=P#type
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=2790&position=P&pitch=SL
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=2790&position=P&pitch=FA


People have been surprised to hear about Marmol's cutter and I heard Len Kasper today say that it seemed more that Marmol was trying to overthrow his slider.  Evidence shows differently.  To overthrow, you would have expected his slider velocity to have increased.  It didn't.  He lost some movement on this slider and he lost velocity on his fastball.  It's as simple as that.

Overall, I don't see much of any evidence that Marmol was throwing a cut fastball with any regularity.  He very well may have been toying with it, and occasionally used it in a game, but the evidence suggests that he simply wasn't as good last year due to some other issue.

I've said for a while that I felt that Marmol, who has always been a bit of a sidearmer, was throwing at a slightly lower arm angle last year.  That tends to flatten out his pitches, which is what we saw on his slider.  Overall, I don't know the technical details on how it would affect fastball velocity, but the lower arm slot could also have affected that as well.

Marmol simply wasn't the lights out closer we expected him to be last year.  Mentally he might not have been right as he may have been trying to add another pitch.  Physically he might not have been right as some of us believe he will eventually have some elbow problems with all the sliders he throws.

So, it would appear to me that Marmol, at least in games, didn't throw a cut fastball with any regularity.  So what is this all about?

It's about the disaster that was the 2011 Cubs coaching staff.   Marmol was obviously toying this cut-fastball idea.  Dale Sveum didn't just decide to make this up.  We'll probably never know if this was done with or without the blessing of former pitching coach Mark Riggins or not, but there obviously was some toying with Marmol.  If it was from Marmol himself, that means that the clueless coaching staff from last season really didn't have much control over its players.  If it was Mark Riggins who was pushing this, then you have to wonder why he thought Marmol needed to add that third pitch.  Marmol didn't need any help and will, for at least a next several years, only need a fastball/slider combination to be effective as a closer.

Overall, the Marmol cut fastball doesn't affect anything.  It tells us something that we probably already knew...the coaching staff last year was not very good.  Hopefully, Chris Bosio and Dale Sveum will be better, and so far, with just a few words, they seem to be.

Z is right...about everything.

Zambrano was right.

The Cubs are a AAA team.

They have a AAA manager.
They have a AAA pitching coach.
They have mostly AAA players.
They obviously have a AAA training staff. (All the injuries???)
They have a AAA scouting system.
They play in a AAA ballpark.

And they aren't even a very good AAA team. With the exception of Albert Pujols, the Cardinals are pretty much have a AAA roster right now too and the best the Cubs AAA team could do against the Cardinals AAA team was take them to extra innings in a couple of the games.

Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that the Cubs take a bus from city to city on road trips instead of flying.

Z was also right about calling out his team.

People say that he focused his attention entirely in Carlos Marmol. Outside of allegedly looking over at Marmol's empty locker during his rant, Zambrano didn't say or do anything that should have been characterized as calling out any particular teammate.

Zambrano repeatedly said "We" in his rant.

"We should know better than this."

"We played like a Triple-A team."

"We should know better than this."

"We should know better than we did on the field."

"We should know that Ryan Theriot is not a good fastball hitter."

"We should know that as a team."

"We should play better here."

"We stink."

That's accusing a lot of people besides Carlos Marmol. That's blaming Koyie Hill. That's blaming pointless pitching coach Mark Riggins. That's blaming poor scouting. That's blaming the entire roster for not being attentive enough to know game situations. And that is most importantly blaming Mike Quade for not having this team prepared to play on a daily basis.

Zambrano has been very quick to blame himself this season when something doesn't go quite right on the field when he pitches. That's different than in previous years. In the game last year when he got into a shouting match with Derrek Lee he was as much to blame about what happened in that first inning as anyone. He was wrong then.

Z is one of the last people to blame for this team being as bad as it is right now. Yet, to his credit, he lumped himself in with the rest of the team when venting yesterday.

Should it have been Z's job to do this? No. But no one else in this organization is stepping up to say anything.

What it shows is that the Cubs have a void in leadership at every level from executive management to the playing field...a void except for one starting pitcher who had the guts to stand up and say exactly what needed to be said.

Marmol gets a back-weighted contract with a no trade clause

Congratulations to Jim Hendry for signing a relief pitcher to close out games for the handful of occasions this team might actually need him for this year....and for 3 years no less...and for $20 million...and with a no trade clause.

Here is how the Carlos Marmol deal breaks down, my friends...

Year 1: $3.2 million (good deal)
Year 2: $7 million (not a good deal)
Year 3: $9.8 million (ugh!)

Now that third year is buying out his first year of free agency. For his last two years of arbitration, the Cubs are paying Marmol about $5 million per season.

The money seems a little high to me...but the bigger issue is the years. Yes, buying out that first year of free agency obviously is very important to Jim Hendry, but giving a reliever...any reliever...a three year contract is just flat out wrong. The better move would have been to meet Marmol half way this year, and then try to sign him to a two year deal next year.

Relief pitchers are relief pitchers for a reason. They are inconsistent from year to year. Marmol has not shown that he can pitch 3 consistently good years in a row.

To add to the 'ick' of this deal, the Cubs have given Marmol a limited no trade clause...what is the limit of it? I'm guessing all it limits is the Cubs options when Marmol's arm starts to fall off during the 2012 season.

If you haven't guessed, I don't like this deal.

But it is what it is and Marmol is a Cub for 3 years.

I'm a little bummed that Hendry is already spending all the extra money he'll have after this season.

Is signing Marmol to a multi year contract a good idea?

The rumor is that the Cubs are close to making a deal with their last unsigned arbitration candidate, Carlos Marmol.

The numbers that were given out in the arbitration process:
$4.1 million by the Cubs
$5.65 million by Marmol

Considering the fact the Carlos Marmol had a WAR of 3.1 last season, it would seem like $5.65 would be a steal on the open market.  For a second year arbitration eligible player, though, it would seem to me that Marmol's asking price isn't too outrageous.  I said back in December that Marmol should get $5 million.  So Marmol's number isn't out of whack.

If the Cubs are looking to sign Marmol to a multi-year deal, they should be looking to wrap up Marmol with a deal that will last through his arbitration eligibility which ends in 2012.

So, then, we come down to this question, is it the right move for the Cubs to sign Marmol to a multiyear contract?

It really comes down to what you expect from Marmol in 2011.  If you expect him around as effective as he was in 2010, then you are faced with the reality that you will have to pay Marmol $6 or $7 million next season...maybe even more.  The whole point of signing a player who is arbitration eligible to a multi-year deal is to try to save money.

Right now the Cubs appear to be setting themselves up for major renovation to the roster in 2012 with Ramirez, Fukudome, Grabow, Silva, Pena, and Samardzija all coming off the books after this season.  Added up, (and taking into account option buyouts), that removes $47.7 million from the roster next year.  If you also take into account that I think Marlon Byrd will be traded before 2012, then we can add yet another $5.5 million to that total.

The Cubs will obviously need a first and third baseman as no one in there system appears to be able to fill those positions once Ramirez and Pena leave.  The Cubs want to make every penny available to fill those two spots in 2012.  Signing Marmol now could mean that the Cubs would have an extra couple million available next year to add that big hitting corner infielder.

Let's hope he stays on top of that slider, unlike in this picture.

I admit...I'm being a bit of a hypocrite here.  My general policy is that you never sign a relief pitcher...especially one that isn't a free agent...to a multi-year contract.  Relief pitchers, for the most part, are inconstant.  That's why they are relief pitchers.  Only a small percentage of them are reliable from year to year.  My belief is that Carlos Marmol is more likely one of those reliable relievers.  As a result, the likelihood that the Cubs will have to give him a pretty decent sized pay raise next year in arbitration is relatively high.

We almost must assume that the Cubs will not be trading Marmol before the 2012 season.  I don't see any scenario where Marmol isn't in a Cubs uniform next spring.  He has shown very little that should make us concerned that he'll get injured.  They will have to pay him in 2012 one way or the other.

So I'm might be the only person in the world (besides Jim Hendry) that thinks this, but I believe signing Marmol to a 2 year contract extension is a pretty good idea.

With all that said...if the Cubs sign him for more than 2 years...it's a bad move.  A two year contract give the Cubs the opportunity, if Marmol plays as well as we should expect, to try to sign him to a longer term deal during the 2012 season to avoid him hitting the open market where his price will become astronomical.

Marmol signs for $2.125 million. That will be $42,500 for each walk.

The Cubs avoided arbitration today with Carlos Marmol.

 

"WOOHOO, I'm a millionaire!"

The numbers exchanged were $2.5 million from Marmol and $1.75 million from the Cubs.

He signed at $2.125, which, in typical Cubs fashion, was directly in the middle of the two numbers.

The title was meant to be humorous...this actually is a good, fair deal for Marmol and the Cubs who is going into his first full year as a closer.  Hopefully he will have his mechanics fixed up and start getting on top of his pitches again this season.