Cubs rumors are flying all over the place over the last 24 hours.
The rumor most likely to have an impact on the team is the expected signing of Jorge Soler to a rather big contract…but I’ll come back to that in a second.
An interesting yet unfounded rumor circulated on the internet last night involving the renovations at Wrigley. NBC 5 reported that there may be a possibility that the Cubs are looking to possibly expand initial renovation plans and are maybe looking to find a place to possibly play their home games outside of Wrigley Field in 2013 and possibly could be preparing for the possibility of possibly playing their games at US Cellular Field.
If you didn’t notice, I don’t think there is anything grain of truth about this. In fact, the report, which I’m not even going to link, is so full of unreferenced rumors, speculation and flat out guesses that it isn’t really worth taking too seriously.
That being said, if the Ricketts family were to take such a dramatic step, I would fully support it. This would signal that a more piecemeal approach would not be an effective way of truly modernizing the ballpark. Unfortunately, the Ricketts family has never even given a hint of a possibility that this could happen.
I’ll write more about this at a later date.
The bigger, and possibly more truthful news, is that Dave van Dyke of the Tribune reported last night that the Cubs are on the verge of signing Jorge Soler and that his sources claim that the Cub are offering him a whopping 3 to 4 years at $27.5 million.
Most people are fairly convinced that van Dyke’s story is true, but reading it closely, I’m not sure that it really offers any more information that we had from previous days. Don’t get me wrong…I believe the Cubs are going in big on Soler and that they will eventually get him. The contract numbers are what are a bit mind-boggling right now. At the same time, other members of the media are starting to hint that van Dyke’s story is, in fact, correct.
While scouting reports are lacking on Soler, it is commonly accepted that this kid, who is only 19 years old, is still 2 to 3 (maybe more) years away from being ready for the big leagues. A 3 to 4 year contract would probably gain the Cubs only 1 year of Soler’s services at the big league level…but the Cubs would still have 2 to 3 years of control on him after that contract is over, so there is no reason to worry that he’d be a free agent and leave just as he’s coming into his own, if he is indeed a good player.
I’ve felt a 6 year $20 deal for the kid would be about the max the Cubs should go. According to this report, they may feel differently. They have already (and still unofficially) signed Gerardo Concepcion for $8 million. If both of these reports are true, we are seeing an interesting strategy unfolding with the Cubs right now.
With Theo on board, the Cubs were looking to start spending heavily on player development and try to spend big on the draft. In fact, the Cubs had already started to move in that direction during the 2011 draft paying pretty big dollars on players. It’s a strategy that high revenue teams use to make their draft much more effective even though they may not have any of the top draft positions. That strategy becomes much more difficult now with the new collective bargaining agreement where hard slotting will be enforced. Overpaying for players who were drafted higher than they should have been will be punished now.
So with the new CBA, it appears a new wind is blowing now and these Cuban players maybe showing us how the Cubs plan to change how they bring talent in.
International players, like Concepcion and Soler, don’t have to go through the same drafting process as American players. So instead of possibly overpaying players in the draft, which the Cubs can’t really do anymore, the Cubs are going to overpay for international players. It started with Concepcion and will also occur with Soler, assuming the Cubs do have a deal in place with him.
This really isn’t anything new. Teams have been overpaying for foreign players for years, but with the new draft rules in place, this sort of strategy is going to expand and it is a good thing the Cubs are spending money in this way. It is still cheaper than blowing money on 32 year old free agents.
Unfortunately, this strategy won’t be available to be used forever. One of Bud Selig’s remaining pet projects is to create an international draft that will likely have some of the same rules as the American amateur draft does. It will give each team an equal chance at signing these international players, and it will probably enforce a slotting system to prevent teams from overpaying.
When this happens, the Cubs will need to employ a new strategy to gain an advantage. But for now, enjoy the fact that the Cubs are overspending on these international prospects. This is a good way of building up the farm system and its still cheaper than overpaying for free agents.
Showing posts with label Jorge Soler. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jorge Soler. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Will Soler become too expensive?
With the Marlins supposedly offering Yoenis Cespedes a contract (and rumor has it they've offered him $40 million for 6 years), it might be just a matter a days before he is off the market.
When that happens, attention will the move to the other Cuban outfielder that has caught the eye of many major league teams, Jorge Soler.
I've gone on record as saying that the Cubs should focus more on signing Soler than Cespedes, which is not a unique opinion. Many other experts and bloggers feel the same way. We are under the assumption that Soler will be significantly cheaper, but is that really going to be true with a kid that is going to be in the minor leagues for the next 3 or more years?
Soler is only 19 years old. More than that, though. There is no solid scouting report on the kid. He's tall and lanky from the photos we've seen of him. He's got a long, loopy swing according to reports from the handful of people who have actually seen the kid play. He's got a good arm and currently has above average speed. Almost everyone has seen Cespedes hit and we know of his insane leg strength thanks to his promotional video but there is literally no video of Soler playing.
What we do know is that most scouts see Soler as having a high ceiling. Some argue whether or not it is as high as Cespedes, but Soler's age gives a team the opportunity to find out without spending as much money.
Many teams, and Cespedes himself, believe that Cespedes is major league ready right now or at least very near it. As a result, a team like the Marlins or the Nationals may be looking to make the big plunge and sign the kid for as much as $50 million and using him has a way of competing immediately in their division. Soler does not give a team that potential right now.
So we then get to the point of this post. Who is interested in Soler and what will they pay for him? Obviously we all believe the Cubs are very interested. The Red Sox have expressed an interest as have the Orioles, Nationals, White Sox and even the A's.
This kid is going to have a lot of suitors...perhaps more than Cespedes has had. If Cespedes signs before Soler (which appears likely right now), the cost to sign this 19 year old might blow up significantly...perhaps north of $20 million.
The Cubs do have $20 million to spend, but would it be worth it? Soler is probably going to spend the better part of the next 3 years in the minor leagues, if not longer. The Red Sox, White Sox and Orioles are all teams that potentially are willing to spend big on talent that won't be available for that many years...the Red Sox because they are always looking toward the future and the other teams because they are in major rebuilding projects like the Cubs. In fact, the White Sox might have the biggest reason to sign Soler since their farm system is currently ranked near or at the bottom by most experts right now.
So what should the Cubs do if the price of Solor does push past $20 million? They are rumored to have already spent $7 to $8 million on Gerardo Concepcion, who didn't have nearly the buzz that Soler does. A number of scouts have projected Concepcion out as only a #4 or #5 starter. Both players are the same age and it might take them both just as long to get to the big leagues.
As I said before, the Cubs do have the money. The 2012 payroll is going to be down significantly from last year. I felt the rumored offer to Concepcion was a bit much, but if this is the direction the Cubs are willing to take, I say that $20+ million for Soler is worth the risk. With Brett Jackson projected as the future center fielder, adding Soler as the 2014 or 2015 left or right fielder seems like a pretty good option.
Watch for more scouting reports on Soler to be posted over the next few weeks. As I mentioned, there isn't much solid information about him compared to what we know about Cespedes. When those reports come out, we can better judge if the escalating price for this kid is worth the risk.
When that happens, attention will the move to the other Cuban outfielder that has caught the eye of many major league teams, Jorge Soler.
I've gone on record as saying that the Cubs should focus more on signing Soler than Cespedes, which is not a unique opinion. Many other experts and bloggers feel the same way. We are under the assumption that Soler will be significantly cheaper, but is that really going to be true with a kid that is going to be in the minor leagues for the next 3 or more years?
Soler is only 19 years old. More than that, though. There is no solid scouting report on the kid. He's tall and lanky from the photos we've seen of him. He's got a long, loopy swing according to reports from the handful of people who have actually seen the kid play. He's got a good arm and currently has above average speed. Almost everyone has seen Cespedes hit and we know of his insane leg strength thanks to his promotional video but there is literally no video of Soler playing.
What we do know is that most scouts see Soler as having a high ceiling. Some argue whether or not it is as high as Cespedes, but Soler's age gives a team the opportunity to find out without spending as much money.
Many teams, and Cespedes himself, believe that Cespedes is major league ready right now or at least very near it. As a result, a team like the Marlins or the Nationals may be looking to make the big plunge and sign the kid for as much as $50 million and using him has a way of competing immediately in their division. Soler does not give a team that potential right now.
So we then get to the point of this post. Who is interested in Soler and what will they pay for him? Obviously we all believe the Cubs are very interested. The Red Sox have expressed an interest as have the Orioles, Nationals, White Sox and even the A's.
This kid is going to have a lot of suitors...perhaps more than Cespedes has had. If Cespedes signs before Soler (which appears likely right now), the cost to sign this 19 year old might blow up significantly...perhaps north of $20 million.
The Cubs do have $20 million to spend, but would it be worth it? Soler is probably going to spend the better part of the next 3 years in the minor leagues, if not longer. The Red Sox, White Sox and Orioles are all teams that potentially are willing to spend big on talent that won't be available for that many years...the Red Sox because they are always looking toward the future and the other teams because they are in major rebuilding projects like the Cubs. In fact, the White Sox might have the biggest reason to sign Soler since their farm system is currently ranked near or at the bottom by most experts right now.
So what should the Cubs do if the price of Solor does push past $20 million? They are rumored to have already spent $7 to $8 million on Gerardo Concepcion, who didn't have nearly the buzz that Soler does. A number of scouts have projected Concepcion out as only a #4 or #5 starter. Both players are the same age and it might take them both just as long to get to the big leagues.
As I said before, the Cubs do have the money. The 2012 payroll is going to be down significantly from last year. I felt the rumored offer to Concepcion was a bit much, but if this is the direction the Cubs are willing to take, I say that $20+ million for Soler is worth the risk. With Brett Jackson projected as the future center fielder, adding Soler as the 2014 or 2015 left or right fielder seems like a pretty good option.
Watch for more scouting reports on Soler to be posted over the next few weeks. As I mentioned, there isn't much solid information about him compared to what we know about Cespedes. When those reports come out, we can better judge if the escalating price for this kid is worth the risk.
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Cespedes...or spend less
Yoenis Cespedes is officially a free agent. The much ballyhooed 26 year old Cuban defector is now currently the biggest name on the free agent market, and the Cubs are supposedly his top suitor.
My initial reaction to the idea of getting Cespedes has been negative. It just seems that most of the highly praised “mature” players who have come from other countries (and played professionally in those other countries) have never quite lived up to expectations at the Major League level.
Nothing in what I have read about Cespedes has convinced me of anything different. Cespedes’s stats in the Cuban league are close to video game levels. Last year he batted .333 with an OPS that approached 1.100. He also had 33 home runs and 99 RBI in only 90 games.
He’s a very good defender with an above average arm in the outfield. He is supposedly patient at the plate. He’s built like a fullback (could the Bears use him?) but has some pretty good speed. If you add it all together, he is the clichéd “5 tool” athlete.
So what’s the down side here? A couple of things…
First off, his experience is in the Cuban League, which most experts say is the equivalent of single-A minor league ball. So as a 25 year old, he played in single-A ball, putting him behind the development of most other minor league players. It’s difficult to say how Cespedes’s number will translate to the big leagues, but potentially he could be a .290 hitter hitting about 15 to 20 homers a season. That makes him look an awful lot like Marlon Byrd.
Second, his price, for someone that has only proven his success at a single-A level, is going to be extremely high. Two years ago, the Reds took a chance on Aroldis Chapman and paid him $30 million for 6 years. A good percentage of that is in a signing bonus, but still it is about $5 million a year. So far Chapman has been nothing more than a setup man for the Reds, though they may try to make him a starter again. His control has been a bit iffy and has started to show some injury problems. I bring up Chapman because it is assumed that Cespedes will sign for significantly more. My guess is that he might sign for 5 to 6 years at $40 to $50 million. That’s a bit frightening.
For me, I just don’t see the benefit for the Cubs to sign a player like Cespedes at the moment. It is assumed that after a brief stint in the minor leagues, he would be playing at the major league level. But at 26 years old, the Cubs will have to pay a high price to a player who technically should be reaching his prime but has never played higher than single-A ball. At the same time, Cespedes would be hitting his prime as the Cubs are in the middle of a rebuilding process. Cespedes should be a player who you are using to potentially push a team over the top to a division title or something of that sort.
While the Japanese leagues are better than the Cuban league, I look at signing Cespedes in a similar way to the signing of Kosuke Fukudome. The Cubs were coming off a division title in 2007 and looked to Fukudome to fill a hole to help maintain that success. They could afford to do that coming off a division title. The Cubs would have still been favored to win the NL Central in 2008 even if they had not signed Fukudome. Cespedes should be looked at in a similar fashion. Yes, he’s a bit younger, and a little less experienced, but he is likely to be looked at to make a contribution to the big league level in very short order.
The Cubs don’t need that right now. They are looking to develop talent. They should be looking at younger players who will spend a little more time in the minor leagues, and will be less of a financial hit than Cespedes will be. In fact, there is another Cuban defector, Jorge Soler, who is only 19 and has some of the same skills that Cespedes and will be a free agent soon as well. This might be a better alternative.
So far this offseason, the Cubs have acquired 2 types of players, mid-level veterans as place holders and younger prospects with many years of team control that they hope to develop. Cespedes really doesn’t fit under either of these categories. Soler does. Consistency would say that the Cubs would make a significant effort to sign Soler and save the money they could have spent on Cespedes to use in bolstering up player development and scouting other players. (But how the Cubs actually allocate all that money is a mystery.)
The power and overall stills that Cespedes has really is quite attractive and in years past should have made the Cubs and all of us fans drool. Things are different now and while it is a time for taking risks on prospects, paying $40 to $50 million for Cespedes doesn’t seem quite right when there are many other cheaper prospects that the Cubs could take a risk on.
My initial reaction to the idea of getting Cespedes has been negative. It just seems that most of the highly praised “mature” players who have come from other countries (and played professionally in those other countries) have never quite lived up to expectations at the Major League level.
Nothing in what I have read about Cespedes has convinced me of anything different. Cespedes’s stats in the Cuban league are close to video game levels. Last year he batted .333 with an OPS that approached 1.100. He also had 33 home runs and 99 RBI in only 90 games.
He’s a very good defender with an above average arm in the outfield. He is supposedly patient at the plate. He’s built like a fullback (could the Bears use him?) but has some pretty good speed. If you add it all together, he is the clichéd “5 tool” athlete.
So what’s the down side here? A couple of things…
First off, his experience is in the Cuban League, which most experts say is the equivalent of single-A minor league ball. So as a 25 year old, he played in single-A ball, putting him behind the development of most other minor league players. It’s difficult to say how Cespedes’s number will translate to the big leagues, but potentially he could be a .290 hitter hitting about 15 to 20 homers a season. That makes him look an awful lot like Marlon Byrd.
Second, his price, for someone that has only proven his success at a single-A level, is going to be extremely high. Two years ago, the Reds took a chance on Aroldis Chapman and paid him $30 million for 6 years. A good percentage of that is in a signing bonus, but still it is about $5 million a year. So far Chapman has been nothing more than a setup man for the Reds, though they may try to make him a starter again. His control has been a bit iffy and has started to show some injury problems. I bring up Chapman because it is assumed that Cespedes will sign for significantly more. My guess is that he might sign for 5 to 6 years at $40 to $50 million. That’s a bit frightening.
For me, I just don’t see the benefit for the Cubs to sign a player like Cespedes at the moment. It is assumed that after a brief stint in the minor leagues, he would be playing at the major league level. But at 26 years old, the Cubs will have to pay a high price to a player who technically should be reaching his prime but has never played higher than single-A ball. At the same time, Cespedes would be hitting his prime as the Cubs are in the middle of a rebuilding process. Cespedes should be a player who you are using to potentially push a team over the top to a division title or something of that sort.
While the Japanese leagues are better than the Cuban league, I look at signing Cespedes in a similar way to the signing of Kosuke Fukudome. The Cubs were coming off a division title in 2007 and looked to Fukudome to fill a hole to help maintain that success. They could afford to do that coming off a division title. The Cubs would have still been favored to win the NL Central in 2008 even if they had not signed Fukudome. Cespedes should be looked at in a similar fashion. Yes, he’s a bit younger, and a little less experienced, but he is likely to be looked at to make a contribution to the big league level in very short order.
The Cubs don’t need that right now. They are looking to develop talent. They should be looking at younger players who will spend a little more time in the minor leagues, and will be less of a financial hit than Cespedes will be. In fact, there is another Cuban defector, Jorge Soler, who is only 19 and has some of the same skills that Cespedes and will be a free agent soon as well. This might be a better alternative.
So far this offseason, the Cubs have acquired 2 types of players, mid-level veterans as place holders and younger prospects with many years of team control that they hope to develop. Cespedes really doesn’t fit under either of these categories. Soler does. Consistency would say that the Cubs would make a significant effort to sign Soler and save the money they could have spent on Cespedes to use in bolstering up player development and scouting other players. (But how the Cubs actually allocate all that money is a mystery.)
The power and overall stills that Cespedes has really is quite attractive and in years past should have made the Cubs and all of us fans drool. Things are different now and while it is a time for taking risks on prospects, paying $40 to $50 million for Cespedes doesn’t seem quite right when there are many other cheaper prospects that the Cubs could take a risk on.
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