If you saw my little joke of a post from last night about Ben Sheets, you might be misled about what I think of the idea of the Cubs signing him.
I think Ben Sheets would be a good addition to the team.
Sheets would be brought on to replace Rich Harden in the rotation and as insurance in case Ted Lilly is out a bit longer than expected from his shoulder surgery.
When healthy, Sheets has been a work horse. One of my favorite pitching stats for starters is innings pitched per start. Over his career Ben Sheets has pitched 6.5 innings per start. That is well above the MLB average and better than any current starter on the Cubs. Z currently the best at 6.4 Dempster-6.2, Lilly-5.8. And Rich Harden was at 5.8 innings per start as well. If Sheets replaces Harden, that instantly takes stress off the bullpen. That would be almost one inning more per game that some middle reliever with an ERA of 4.50 doesn't have to pitch. Harden pitches more efficiently as well. While pitching deeper into games, Sheets throws only 98 pitches per start. Compare that to Dempster at 101 and Z at 106. Harden is at 97. Add to that the fact Sheets throws 3.71 pitches per plate appearance. )Z-3.89, Dempster-3.75, Lilly-3.84 and Harden 4.01 yikes!) and you have one of the most productive pitchers in baseball.
Yes, most popular stats show that Harden is a better pitcher overall, but if you add the fact that a middle relief pitcher has to pitch that extra inning for Harden, the statistics would probably even out a bit more. Remember, if Harden has to be taken out in the 5th or 6th inning, the pitcher coming in likely isn't one of the better relievers. The setup men usually don't come into the game until the 7th or 8th innings.
But we are drifting too much into stat world here.
Ben Sheets is a good player. He's a winner. He knows the central division.
So why hasn't anyone else picked him up? I find this somewhat disturbing.
A couple factors might be in play here.
First, he might be asking way too much. One rumor I saw said that he might be asking for $12 million a year. Yeah...the might happen in this economic environment.
Another factor? Teams are afraid of him coming off of surgery on his elbow. Is he really healthy?
Sheets spent a lot of time working with the training staff of the Texas Rangers last year. You would have thought that while working so closely with the Rangers during his season of rehab, the Rangers would have actually made an offer to him for 2010. But they don't seem all that interested right now. Could they be afraid to sign him because they know he isn't the pitcher he was before? Or could their unsettled ownership situation be more to blame?
Even with all that uncertainty, I think the Cubs should take a chance on Sheets if they could sign him for $5 million + performance incentives with a mutual option for 2011. If he is most of the pitcher he was before, the Cubs would benefit greatly by having him on the team.
