Who would be the best person to play center field for the Cubs in 2010?
And I have come to the conclusion that Reed Johnson is who the Cubs should pick (unless they trade for Jacoby Ellsbury who I poorly referenced in this post...mathematician!).
Anyway...let's compare some stats for the four free agents under consideration...Marlon Byrd, Scott Podsednik, Rick Ankiel, and Reedz.
| age | BA | HR | RBI | OPS | SB | ave/rhp | ave/lhp | %scored | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byrd | 32 | .279 | 12 | 69 | .762 | 8 | .282 | .273 | 16% |
| Pods | 34 | .277 | 6 | 46 | .720 | 49 | .280 | .267 | 14% |
| Ankiel | 30 | .251 | 23 | 74 | .763 | 3 | .253 | .245 | 14% |
| Reedz | 33 | .282 | 11 | 63 | .755 | 7 | .265 | .313 | 16% |
some translation here...
ave/rhp...batting average vs. right handed pitching
ave/lhp...batting average vs. left handed pitching
%scored...percentage of baserunners that score during batter is at the plate.
These are all numbers averaged out to a 162 game season.
Reedz numbers compare fairly well to all of these players...with the biggest concern being his average against right handed pitchers. Ankiel has more power, but is a less reliable hitter. Podsednik can still more bases, but won't drive in runs. In fact, Marlon Byrd is probably the closest in stats to Reed Johnson, and if it wasn't for his career year last year, Byrd's stats would be quite a bit worse than Reed's.
Then there is the affordability factor.
Reed has only recently been rumored to be a candidate for the center field position for the Yankees (who do have an opening now the Melky has been traded), but outside that hasn't been mentioned for any other club. Reed's price will likely be lower than any of the other free agent center fielders. Maybe he'll cost around the same amount as Pods or Ankiel.
Another factor...Johnson has already played for the Cubs and knows how to play center at Wrigley. In fact, he has played center field fairly well in his time at Chicago. I think it is questionable whether Pods could even play center field anymore. And I haven't liked what I have seen out of Ankiel...he's basically another Soriano out there...good arm and that's about it.
That leaves Reedz or Byrd. I really do think they are, in the end, very similar. But Reedz is going to be a lot cheaper.
So, what say you? Is Reed Johnson the best choice in center field for the Cubs?
8 comments:
Reed has a bad back. Bad backs rarely get better. At this point, he's Milton Bradley without the great on base percentage and all the personality issues.
Johnson does also have a better score rate with runners on base than Bradley did.
But Bradley isn't who we need to be concerned about. Does Reedz hold water to these other players?
His back has held up fairly well in his time with the Cubs...other parts of his body? not so much.
But his back should be a continued concern...but it seemed like it was not a big problem for him last year.
He missed like half the season last year and he's 33 years old.
I don't think he's coming back. Because if Hendry wanted him, he would have signed him to a 3 year, $15million deal already. And if they had a wink,wink, nudge, nudge kind of deal (because there's some rule about players' salary can only be cut so much if they return to the same team), I think he would have signed it already.
I have the feeling that Reed could show up at the Cubs Convention, get up on the podium and declare that he would play for league minimum for the Cubs and Hendry still wouldn't sign him.
Well, at least Hendry isn't saying that it's in Reed's best interest to try the open market like he did with Woody last off-season.
And there are too many Hendry's in Chicago sports now. I kinda like the one playing for the Hawks so maybe Jimbo should go...
Well, the broken foot last year did keep him out for way too long.
Ugh...stop poking holes in my theories!
Anyway, the broken foot isn't a chronic problem like the back is. Not to make too many excuses, but Podsednik and Ankiel haven't been all that much healthier over their careers.
Yeah, of the 4 choices you have available, Reed would probably be as good a choice as any. But I think at his age and with his splits, he's best suited to be the right-handed platoon partner.
On the other hand, Byrd is probably wanting $8-10,000,000 per season. And with Byrd, who so far appears to be the guy that the Cubs are zeroing in on, you have to wonder why his walks dropped so much last year while his k's went way up. And then you have to wonder how he would adjust to the new league.
I have to wonder if the Cubs have another player under consideration that we haven't heard about yet.
To clarify, I'd love to keep Reedz as a platoon player especially with his splits and health concerns. I just don't believe that Hendry has any intention of bringing him back based on how he usually signs guys quickly if he wants to bring them back. I wouldn't want Pods and I think that Ankiel has peaked. Now if he would toe the rubber and be able to throw strikes when he isn't playing the outfield, that would be an intriguing possibility.
Reedz as a platoon would be the best...but I can't imagine the Cubs trying to pick up 2 outfielders unless they think that Sam Fuld would be the left-handed option.
Oh, I just realized something interesting. I use Baseball-Reference.com to do player comparisons and I didn't notice this until just now, but if you look up Marlon Byrd, scroll down to the player comparisons. The hitter most like Marlon is Reed Johnson.
Damn, can't seem to be able to cut and paste the link.
www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/byrdma01.shmtl
Wow...now that is funny!
Post a Comment