I have heard a number of rumors that the Cubs are looking at possibly acquiring Joel Pineiro, who was outstanding for most of the season last year for the Cardinals.
I kinda dismissed the rumor because I believe the Cubs just don't have the money to sign a player like him...as he is coming off of a good year. I also think the Cubs would rather fill vacancies in center field and in the bullpen before signing another starting pitcher.
But I began to think that if Cubs give up on trying to fill that bullpen position (since Capps is off the markets now) then they would probably want to go ahead and try to add a starter.
So maybe there is something to these rumors.
Is this a good idea or a bad one? I only have ever thought that Pineiro was a below average starter who finally had a good season last year. As a result, if this was true, then Hendry would be giving out one of his famous 4/$40 contracts to a player coming off of a career year.
But, believe it or not, last year was actually not a career year for Pineiro.
One could argue that Pineiro has had two season that were at least as good, if not better than last year while he pitched in Seattle. In 2002 and 2003 he was very good, winning 14 and 16 game respectively with ERAs well under 4.
Then, after pitching 211 innings in 2003, he fell off a cliff...a cliff that he wasn't able to really climb back up from until last year.
What really plagued Pineiro after 2003 was his control. His walk totals increased as his innings decreased. His ERA for the next 3 seasons was 5.60 as he gave up 3 walks every 9 innings. He did one stint on the DL with shoulder problems and spent a number of stints in the minor leagues in 2005 and 2007.
This past season, though, he found control...better control than he ever had before. He led the league with a 1.1 walk/9 inning ratio. That's damn good. His ERA of 3.78 was the third best in his career...with better results in 2001 and 2002.
What can we expect from Pineiro in the future?
Well, Pineiro has been in the Majors for 10 years now and will be 31 years old next season. His full season career averages would be 12 wins and 11 loses with a 4.39 ERA. Now with the control problems he has exhibited in the past, you have to think there is a fair possibility that those problems may return, especially coming off of his first 200+ inning season since 2003. So you might expect that his career 2.6 walks per 9 innings number may be on the higher side of that in 2010 instead of near the outstanding 1.1 ratio from 2009.
What else do we know about Pineiro? Well, he is a ground ball pitcher...and is very good at getting those ground balls. Also, he is not a strike out pitcher. He pitches to contact. This results in a less than impressive batting average against of .273. Since he does pitch to contact and has a high BA-against, he does give up home runs at a rate near the league average even though he is a ground ball pitcher. That number was much lower last year especially at home in St. Louis.
Ok...should the Cubs get Pineiro?
Well, let's think about this. Signing Pineiro means there will be no competition for the fifth starter spot, as Pineiro will likely take the #4 spot in the rotation with Wells taking the #5 spot. As a result, the current competitors for that #5 slot in the rotation will go into the bullpen...pushing F7 (Jeff Samardzja) possibly into that right handed setup role. That also means that Gorzellany and Marshall would be in the bullpen resulting in 3 lefties out there (with Grabow as the left handed setup man).
So we have seen how he would fit on the team...but would he be good? Some of Pineiro's numbers as a Cardinal can be attributed to the fact his home ballpark is considered a pitcher's park. But ignoring that, he is a ground ball pitcher, which would be good at Wrigley Field. He pitches to contact, and with the ground balls, he induces a lot of double plays. His quality start percentage during his career is 54% (not too bad) and he does pitch deep into games (6.2 innings per start). These are all good things, especially for a #4 or #5 starter.
On the bad side...he has had control problems in the past. Maybe he did turn the corner last year...but if he had shown anything similar in a previous season I'd feel more comfortable about it. The nearest walk/9ip rate that he has had was in 2008 with St. Louis and that rate was a full walk higher than in 2009.
Pineiro does give up home runs. I don't mind this much if he was a better control pitcher, but during his career he hasn't been, so those home runs can be rather damaging since their are more runners on base when the homers are hit.
So there are the stats. Should the Cubs go after him? Well, unfortunately, the Cubs will have to probably pay as much, if not more, for Pineiro than they would have for Rich Harden and that might be a bit too much ($8 to $10 million). But Pineiro's ability to go deep into games is a huge plus over Rich Harden and more desired for a #4 or #5 pitcher.
You decide.
One last note...
On Baseball-Reference, one of the pitchers that Pineiro most similarly scores near is Jason Marquis...and we all know how much we loved Marquis.
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