Friday...oops, Saturday Physical: Top of the rotation (Z, Dempster and Lilly)

I was going to do this on Thursday, but the fact the Cubs weren't able to sign a so-so relief pitcher that they had been targeting pissed me off so much that I couldn't finish the post.

Anyway, we are going to look at the top of the rotation today...in particular Zambrano, Dempster, and Lilly.

2009

Coming off of an All-Star season, Ryan Dempster was rewarded with a nice contract extension. And Dempster was consistent most of the year. Lilly, as well, was consistent, putting together perhaps his best season. And then there is Zambrano, who continued his career of high potential and somewhat disappointing results.

For some reason, the starters were somewhat maligned in 2009 with the exception of Lilly and Wells...but the truth of the matter is, the Cubs rotation in 2009 was actually quite good.

Lilly's career year has come with some consequences, as it usually does with any Cub pitcher who has a career year. He has had offseason surgery on his shoulder and may miss the first month or two of 2010.

Dempster spent some time on the DL with a broken toe...the picture says it all.

D'oh!

Zambrano was, well, Zambrano throughout most of the year.  Z's 2010 highlight. The result of this event was a suspension and many in the media/blogosphere saying that Z needed to go. 

The numbers:
Wins: Lilly-12, Dempster-11, Z-9
ERA: Lilly-3.10, Dempster-3.64, Z-3.77
Ks: Lilly-151, Dempster-172, Z-152
IP: Lilly-177.0, Dempster-200.0, Z-169.1

Each pitcher did spend some time on the DL during the season with only Dempster making over 30 starts.


2010...what to expect.

These three pitchers will return, of course. Lilly is in the last year of his contract. Zambrano becomes the second highest paid player on the team this season at almost $18 million. And Dempster will be in the second year of his 4 year deal.

I think we all know what to expect out of Dempster. His results will likely be about what we saw in 2009. Assuming he pitches the whole season and doesn't trip over any dugout railings, the Cubs should get about 35 starts out of Dempster, 12 to 15 wins and an ERA between 3.50 and 4.00.

Zambrano...well, I think we've had enough years of watching this guy to know what to expect out of him for a full season...and it probably isn't worth $18 million. The truth is, in the end, you should probably expect numbers similar to Dempster for the season from Zambrano.

Personally, I'd like to see Z throw out a few more umpires in 2010.

Lilly, well, he is a huge question mark right now. With his shoulder surgery, it is unknown when his season might actually start. What is even more of a concern is how well he will actually come back from the surgery. All the news about his surgery was that it is not too much of a concern and that Lilly should return back from it fine. We've all heard that before. Anyway, my wild-ass guess for Lilly in 2010 is that he'll get in between 25 and 30 starts and come away with about 12 wins.


Doc's comments

I'm fairly sure we know what to expect from Dempster...so I'm not too concerned about him.

This, I really feel, is a make or break season for Zambrano. He needs to step up and start to show that he is the pitcher he claims he is, and the pitcher that the Cubs are paying for. Z's biggest problem for the last couple years has been his inability to stay on top of his pitches. When he does this, his fastball and slider have a sharp sinking motion and are difficult to hit resulting in weak groundballs. He has become much more of a side-arm pitcher the last couple years and as a result his pitches have flattened out which has resulted in many more fly balls being hit.

Lilly...ugh. The Cubs don't have a good history of having pitchers coming back off of surgery after a career year. Hopefully the Cubs are being honest with us about the seriousness of Lilly's injury.

Ted Lilly is a bad ass.  He'll come back...better, stronger.

If the Cubs had the money, they probably should have tried to keep Harden as insurance. But they don't so if the Cubs are to get some insurance for Lilly, they will have to look at the bargain heap as spring training begins, which probably means no Joel Pineiro (overrated) and probably no Ben Sheets (rats!).

But one thing that has been relatively constant for the Cubs over the Larry Rothschild era has been the fact that the starting pitching has been near the top of the league every year. And that will likely be true in 2010.