Friday, June 22, 2012

Cubs thought of the day 6-22-12: Rizzo Day

According to numerous accounts, today is the day that, if they choose, the Cubs could call up Anthony Rizzo and be guaranteed that he will be under team control for one extra year.

Alas the Cubs have not promoted the 22 year old today.  While every indication is that Rizzo will be promoted soon, the Cubs really shouldn't (still) be in any rush to promote him.

First off, the extra year of team control is important financially, but a more important "Rizzo" deadline for the Cubs is coming in a couple more weeks.  If they hold off a little longer, the Cubs may be able to guarantee that Rizzo isn't able to get Super 2 status which would allow him to enter arbitration a year early.

My guess right now is that the Cubs will not promote Rizzo for another month.  The date I'm guessing right now is July 20th when the Cubs travel to St. Louis.

A couple reason's I've chosen that date...

First, it's on the road.  I feel, with all the fan and media hoopla around Rizzo, having his Cubs debut be on the road is probably the best thing for the kid.

Second, it doesn't rob Rizzo of playing in the AAA All-Star game.  While the AAA All-Star game isn't quite the event that the MLB All-Star game is, it is still a nice award for a very good season to this point.

I've heard arguments that the Cubs are likely to promote him soon to boost fan interest.  I don't see that happening either.  Most of the moves made this year have had nothing to do with fan interest and I don't see Jed and Theo being influenced by any business aspect to this situation.

Besides that, I don't see Rizzo boosting fan interest significantly anyway.  This isn't Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper or even Mike Trout.  Rizzo is a very good prospect, but he isn't a game changer.  The only way Rizzo becomes a draw at Wrigley is if he puts on an amazing first month or two after he is called up or he strikes out 20 guys in a game.  Neither of these things is likely.  In the end, Rizzo can only be a draw if he does something unbelievable, and even if he does, the affect on attendance won't be immediate when he is promoted.