This should line up well with Alfonso Soriano's contract, so let's compare the two contacts...shall we?
Let's look first look at the years:
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soriano | $9 mil | $13 mil | $16 mil | $18 mil | $18 mil | $18 mil | $18 mil | $18 mil |
| Holliday | $17 mil | $17 mil | $17 mil | $17 mil | $17 mil | $17 mil | $17 mil | $17mil(opt) |
The Holliday deal is not back weighted. Another thing to look at, the last year on the deal...the eighth year...is a team option.
Holliday will be 30 at the start of this contract. Soriano was 31 at the start of his. Holliday will 36 at the end. Soriano will be 38.
Let's look at some career statistics from the time each of these players was signed.
| ave | HR/season | RBI/season | OPS | SB | K | BB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soriano | .280 | 26/36 | 70/95 | .836 | 26/36 | 104/142 | 28/38 |
| Holliday | .318 | 25/29 | 99/113 | .933 | 13/16 | 101/116 | 54/62 |
Many of the statistics are similar. Holliday was a better for-average hitter and had a much higher OPS. We also see that Holliday took a lot more walks than Soriano. Soriano stole more bases, but Holliday wasn't a slouch on the basepads either. Holliday tended to drive in more runs, but Soriano was a leadoff hitter much of that time.
Now let's keep in mind, many of those years for Holliday were spent in Colorado. In his one year outside of Colorado, last year split between Oakland and St. Louis, his numbers did not suffer over the course of the whole season. So it would seem that much of the Holliday statistics are legit. But closer examination shows that in his career, has hit much better at home (Coors Field) than on the road (ave: .351/.283 hr: 100/52 Ks: 281/325)...so last year could just have been a fluke. Remember, his number were actually not that great in Oakland last year before he was traded to the Cardinals in the middle of a pennant race in which he could beat up on the Cubs.
So, let's get back to the question, which of these deals is better?
Looking at the results, many people feel the Soriano deal has been a bust for the Cubs. They would hoping for a 30/30 guy and got a 25/10 guy. So he isn't a stolen base threat anymore and has been moved out of the leadoff spot. I fully expect to see him have a huge year in the 5 or 6 slot in 2010.
Holliday will be playing second fiddle to Albert Pujols who is arguably the best player in baseball. Holliday drives in 19% of his baserunners, which is rediculously good. With the walks given to Pujols, he will have plenty of opportunity to continue to drive in runs, and with a 19% rate, should have a huge number of RBI in 2010. Both players brought a lot to the table when they signed.
So, what do you think? Ignoring Soriano's time in Chicago, when these two players signed their contracts, which one seems like the better deal?
