We've already set Zambrano, Lilly and Dempster as the top three in the rotation...last year the rest of the rotation consisted of Harden and Wells.
2009
Harden had an off year. Much of his problems revolved around being unlucky...but his velocity was down and, as usual, he was unable to go deep into games. Harden ended the year with a 9-9 record and a 4.09 ERA.
Face it, ladies, this guy is a Ranger now.
The 5th starter spots was a bit of a hodgepodge until June when Randy Wells solidified that last spot. Wells had an outstanding rookie year, basically coming out of nowhere to fill in while Zambrano was on the shelf in May. Wells let the starters with a 3.05 ERA and tied for the team lead with 12 wins.
Other players who got some starts...Gorzelanny started 7 times after the trade from Pittsburgh...Sean Marshall started the season as the #5 starter, but proved to be more valuable in the bullpen. Kevin Hart started a coupled times (and pitched well) before he was traded to the Pirates. And Jeff Samrfasdfjasedfja got a chance to start two games at the end of the season but he continued to look questionable.
2010: What to expect.
Randy Wells will be in the rotation. No doubt about that. Wells just can't be expected to perform as well as he did in 2009. A full season from Wells should result in 10 to 12 wins and an ERA of around 4.00. If he truly is as good as he pitched last year, well, those number will be quite a bit better...and if he pulls a Geovany Soto on us, well, he might lose a spot in the rotation.
Sophomore slump? I hope not.
The last slot in the rotation has a lot of question marks right now. Harden is gone. And the Cubs have been rumored to be in on a number of available starting pitchers right now include Joel Pineiro, Ben Sheets and even Aroldis Chapman.
But right now, none of those guys are on the roster. The players who are that might fill that #5 roll include Jeff Samareafdjafdja, Sean Marshall and Tom Gorzelanny. And no...CARLOS SILVA WILL NOT BE A STARTER FOR THE CUBS! If he is, I'll probably puke.
Every single one of those guys has a reason to stake a claim on the #5 slot. Spellcheck is being paid a lot of money to be a nothing pitcher. This season is his make or break year. He needs to show he belongs here. Marshall has been an effective, but not great, starter for the Cubs. And Gorzelanny was a starter for the Pirates until he decided to start sucking in 2008. (And he was injured too.)
Marshall is probably the safest bet as the #5 starter...but spring training may reveal something different.
Doc's comments
With Lilly likely on the shelf for the first month of the season, I'd really like the Cubs to go out and pick up another starter...specifically, Ben Sheets. I'm not sure he will be affordable enough, but I like him. (Go here to find out why.)
Not only an Olympic hero, but good at the limbo!
As far as Wells, I just don't trust his stuff. He was a lucky pitcher last year. I just don't see him being any more talented than Marshall or Gorzelanny.
I was one of the few people who was ok with the Cubs letting Harden go. His stuff is great when healthy, but he is a strain on the bullpen and hasn't been reliable.
Gorzelanny was good in 2006 and 2007 for the Pirates. The Cubs may be hoping that he returns to that form. But he's just so damn ugly.
In the end, I expect the Cubs to sign one of the players mentioned above or for them to trade for another starter.
But the truth is, Harden or no Harden, starting pitching has been the biggest strength of this ballclub. And it will continue to be in 2010.
